As 2025 came to a close, one message stood out clearly from the housing data: first home buyers remain the most active and influential group in New Zealand’s property market. While conditions have been challenging for many, new entrants have been well placed to take advantage of improved affordability and softer competition.

The result is a market that finished the year more resilient than many expected.

Sales Volumes End the Year on a High

Sales volumes in December were 19.7% higher than the same month in 2024, marking a strong end to the year. This rebound followed a temporary dip in November and brought total sales for 2025 to around 90,300.

While activity in the main centres has remained relatively subdued, regional markets have shown greater strength, helping lift overall volumes.

Property Values Finish 2025 Much Where They Started

In value terms, 2025 ended much as it began. The national Home Value Index recorded a small 0.2% dip in December, leaving values broadly flat over the year.

Some centres, including Tauranga, Dunedin, and Christchurch, recorded gains in the final months of the year, while Auckland, Hamilton, and Wellington ended the year lower. Parts of Southland and Canterbury continued to show resilience.

First Home Buyers Lead the Market

First home buyers accounted for 28.8% of property purchases in December and 28.4% across Q4 as a whole — a near-record share. Importantly, this strength was backed by solid transaction numbers, not just a higher proportion of low activity.

Access to KiwiSaver and ongoing low-deposit lending allowances have continued to support this group. In some cases, first home buyers are even finding mortgage repayments comparable to, or lower than, rent.

Investors Steady, Movers Still Cautious

Mortgaged multiple property owners — including so-called “mum and dad” investors — remain a steady presence in the market. Lower interest rates and reduced reliance on cashflow top-ups have supported this group.

In contrast, movers remain cautious. Debt-to-income constraints and uncertainty have limited upgrade and relocation activity, particularly in higher-priced markets.

Rents Flat as Tenant Power Increases

With net migration lower and tenant demand rising, rents across much of the country have remained flat at best. In several regions, rents have actually fallen, easing pressure on household budgets.

This shift further improves the relative position of first home buyers compared to investors.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Early signs suggest 2026 could become a year of rebuilding confidence. With:

• Housing affordability improved
• Mortgage rates lower than recent peaks
• Listings beginning to drift lower
• The broader economy showing signs of recovery

both sales activity and house prices are expected to rise — albeit modestly.

The big takeaway

First home buyers have been the backbone of New Zealand’s property market through 2025. Their continued strength has helped stabilise sales activity and prevent a deeper downturn.

As confidence rebuilds in 2026, they are likely to remain a central force shaping how the next phase of the housing market unfolds.

Source: Cotality – NZ Monthly Housing Chart Pack, January 2026